The Future of Flight in a Net-Zero World
Several major airlines have pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by midcentury to fight climate change. It’s an ambitious goal that will require an enormous ramp-up in sustainable aviation fuels, but that alone won’t be enough, our latest research shows.
The idea of jetliners running solely on fuel made from used cooking oil from restaurants or corn stalks might seem futuristic, but it’s not that far away.
Is the transition to sustainable aviation fuels actually feasible?
The global airline industry is fast recovering from the unprecedented pause to flying imposed by COVID-19. In some parts of the world, such as the Middle East, airlines are even expanding rapidly – well beyond pre-pandemic levels.
But how will the industry continue to grow while doing its fair share on climate change?
Sustainable aviation fuels: Potential lagging behind reality
The aviation sector is booming, with the number of flights in 2023 expected to outstrip the industry’s 2019 peak. Commercial aviation is already responsible for 2-3% of global carbon emissions. With the renewed surge in air travel, those emissions are only likely to increase in coming years.
Current efforts to reduce aviation carbon emissions focus on the production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs), which include both liquid biofuels (made from algae, food crops and food waste) and synthetic options (such as green hydrogen or synthetic kerosene).
More than sustainable fuels needed for aviation to be sustainable
Critics and researchers caution that pinning aviation’s carbon-cutting hopes on sustainable aviation fuels (SAFs) is problematic. These fuels, derived from liquid biofuels, along with synthetic fuel options such as green hydrogen, have been produced in only miniscule amounts at high cost compared to what’s needed.